What the Matrix Shows
Every active SKU maps to a point in a 2D space:
- X-axis — Velocity: units sold over the selected period
- Y-axis — True Margin %: settled profit as a percentage of revenue, after all platform deductions and attributed ads
True Margin % = (Settlement Revenue − COGS − Platform Fees − Attributed Ad Spend) / Settlement Revenue × 100
Platform fees include referral fees, fulfillment costs, affiliate commissions, and seller-funded discounts. All metrics derive directly from TikTok Finance API settled transactions (settle_transaction_sku) — never estimated GMV or rate cards.
Population-Level Statistical Benchmarks
To eliminate sample selection bias and Pareto power-law distortions, AxonRow computes statistical crosshairs on 100% of active catalog SKUs:
- Vertical Crosshair (Median Velocity):
- Computed as
PERCENTILE_CONT(0.5) WITHIN GROUP (ORDER BY units_sold)across all shop SKUs. - Why Median? Bestselling hero SKUs with thousands of sales would artificially inflate an arithmetic mean, misclassifying 90% of healthy items as dead stock. Median represents the true catalog midpoint.
- Computed as
- Horizontal Crosshair (Weighted Average Margin %):
- Computed as
(Total Settled Profit / Total Settlement Revenue) × 100%. - Why Weighted Average? Simple margin median is easily distorted by small-volume, high-markup accessory items (Simpson’s paradox). Weighted average reflects the true financial baseline of your entire business.
- Computed as
- Red Stop Line (Margin < 0%):
- Absolute financial boundary separating profitable operations from active bleed.
The Four Decision Quadrants
The matrix pairs visual scatter exploration with top-level financial summary cards. Click any quadrant card to immediately view its aggregate financial footprint and drill down into the underlying SKU list.
| Quadrant | Criteria | Strategic Action |
|---|---|---|
| Star | Velocity ≥ Median & Margin ≥ Weighted Avg | Core profit drivers: protect stock levels, expand top affiliate creator outreach, and scale GMV Max ad budgets. |
| Restock | Velocity ≥ Median & 0% ≤ Margin < Weighted Avg | Volume & cash flow engine: monitor reorder lead times to prevent stockouts while tightening creator commissions. |
| Clearance | Velocity < Median & 0% ≤ Margin < Weighted Avg | Working capital drain: run bundle promotions, creator flash sales, or liquidate to free up inventory cash. |
| Phase Out | Margin < 0% (Selling at a net loss) | Immediate intervention: cut ad spend, lower affiliate commission, raise pricing, or pause the listing. |
Drilling Into a SKU
Click any dot or table row to open the full SKU detail view:
- Lifetime margin curve — weekly margin trend from first sale to present
- 5-bucket profit waterfall — Earned / Taken / Spent / Lost / Kept breakdown over the selected period
- Creator attribution — which creators or videos drove the volume, and what commission share they took
Access in AxonRow
Navigate to Products → SKU Health:
- Seller SKU tab: Full table view with 1-click quadrant filter pills and
QuadrantTagbadges on each row. - Profit Matrix tab: 4 financial decision cards + 2D scatter chart with population crosshairs.
| Control | Function |
|---|---|
| Quadrant Decision Cards | 1-click filtering by Star, Restock, Clearance, or Phase Out |
| Time range selector | Sets the observation window (7D, 14D, 30D, custom) |
| Search & Sort | Instant lookup across SKU names, profit, revenue, or margin % |
| Export | Download full SKU dataset including all fee and inventory metrics |