What Happens When You Connect

You've completed the OAuth flow. AxonRow now has read-only access to your TikTok Shop data. Here's what happens next — and what you'll see at each stage.

Day 0: Initial Sync (Minutes)

The first sync runs immediately after connection:

Settlement data: Up to 90 days of settlement transactions pulled. Most of this (60+ days) is already fully settled — you get high-confidence profit numbers instantly for your recent history.
Product catalog: All active SKUs with pricing and variant info.
Shop metadata: Shop name, region, category, commission rates.

What you can see immediately: Your 5-bucket P&L for the last 2-3 months. Per-SKU profit for settled orders. Fee breakdown by category. This is real data, not estimates — these orders already went through TikTok's settlement process.

Day 0-1: Extended Sync (Hours)

Within the first 24 hours, additional data sources begin syncing:

Creator performance: Up to 180 days of affiliate-driven sales data (daily granularity, API limit)
Bestselling data: Product, creator, video, and live rankings (1D/7D/30D snapshots)
Video performance: Up to 180 days of video analytics (views, GMV, orders per video)
Live session data: Livestream sessions with per-product breakdown

Note: Creator and video performance data accumulates daily from the point of connection. Settlement data provides the historical depth — creator/video analytics build over time as daily syncs run.

Day 1-3: Ads Data (If Connected)

If you connect your TikTok Ads account (separate OAuth):

GMV Max campaigns: Last 90 days of campaign, product, creative, and hourly data
Ad spend attribution: Spend mapped to products and creatives
True ROAS calculation: Ad spend joined with settlement profit (not GMV)

What becomes available: Ads Intelligence views, True ROAS numbers, creative performance funnels, and the full Creator × Ad × Product attribution chain.

Day 1-7: Understanding the "Gap"

During your first week, you'll notice a gap in data quality between recent and historical:

Fully Available (High Confidence)

Orders from 30+ days ago: fully settled, complete fee breakdown
Historical trends, averages, and baselines
Product-level and creator-level contribution analysis

Partially Available (Medium Confidence)

Orders from 7-30 days ago: mix of settled and unsettled
Profit estimates with growing accuracy as settlement data arrives
Trend direction is reliable, exact numbers may shift 5-10%

Estimated Only (Low Confidence)

Orders from last 7 days: mostly unsettled
Profit shown using T+1 estimation model (based on your historical fee patterns)
Use for directional decisions, not P&L reporting

This isn't a limitation of AxonRow — it's how TikTok Shop settlement works. See Settlement Lifecycle for the full explanation.

Day 7-14: Estimation Calibration

As your first week of unsettled data starts getting finalized by TikTok, AxonRow compares estimates vs actuals. This calibrates the T+1 estimation model specifically for your shop's patterns:

Your specific return rate by product category
Your actual fee breakdown distribution
Your settlement timing patterns (some categories settle faster)

After this calibration, future estimates become more accurate (typically within 3-5% of final for most shops).

Day 14-30: Steady State

By day 14, you're in steady state:

Daily sync pulls new settlement data, creator performance, and bestselling snapshots
Previously unsettled data gets finalized as TikTok processes it
Forecast model has enough data to produce 7-day projections
Break-even calculations are calibrated to your actual cost structure

By day 30, the forecast model extends to 30-day projections with meaningful confidence intervals.

What to Do in Your First Week

Day 1: Review Historical Profit

Look at settled data from 2-3 months ago — this is your baseline
Identify your top and bottom SKUs by contribution margin
Check your blended fee rate (total fees ÷ total GMV) — most sellers are surprised

Day 2-3: Explore Cross-Entity

Which creators drive your highest-margin products?
Which products look good on GMV but have thin/negative margins?
If ads are connected: which campaigns have profitable True ROAS vs vanity ROAS?

Day 4-7: Set Your COGS

Input your cost-of-goods for each SKU (Goods Management in your dashboard)
Without COGS, profit calculation only accounts for platform deductions
With COGS, you get true net margin — the number that actually matters

Day 7+: Start Acting

Directional decisions are safe: which creators to scale, which to pause
Ad spend allocation adjustments based on True ROAS
Product pricing decisions based on actual margin (not assumed margin)

When Data Is "Ready"

There's no single moment. Instead, think of readiness by use case:

Immediate (Day 0): Historical P&L, fee breakdown, top/bottom SKUs
Day 1-3: Creator and content performance views
Day 7: Directional decisions (trend, relative comparisons)
Day 14: Calibrated estimates, short-term forecasting
Day 30: Full confidence in all metrics, 30-day forecasting, settled P&L for last month

The key insight: you don't have to wait 30 days to get value. Day 0 already gives you 2-3 months of settled historical data that most sellers have never seen broken down to this level. The first week is about exploration; the following weeks are about increasing confidence in forward-looking metrics.

Onboarding & Data Readiness